Global Media Outlook: $2 Tril. by 2011

June 21, 2007
By Georg Szalai/The Hollywood Reporter

NEW YORK The global entertainment and media industry will expand at a 6.4 percent compound annual growth rate over five years to hit $2 trillion in 2011, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' "Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2007-2011."

One estimate likely to cause a stir includes the prediction that U.S. spending on Internet advertising and access will surpass spending on newspaper publishing in 2009.

Globally, PwC expects Internet advertising and access spending to grow from an estimated $177 billion in 2006 to $332 billion in 2011, making for a 13.5 percent compound annual growth rate.

The U.S. remains the largest but also the slowest-growing media market in the world, expanding at an estimated 5.3 percent compound annual growth rate to hit $754 billion in 2011.

Asia Pacific will be the fastest-growing region at an estimated CAGR of 13.5 percent.

Digital media, particularly online and wireless, are pegged to be the key growth engines around the world, with nearly half of total industry growth expected to come from these two areas over the five-year period, according to the global consultancy.

PwC released its eighth annual Outlook forecast with these and other projections today.

Global advertising will increase at a 5.4 percent compound annual growth rate to expand from an estimated $407 billion in 2006 to $530 billion in 2011, the Outlook predicts.

According to PwC, the Internet will remain the fastest-growing ad medium, with a projected 18.5 percent CAGR to $73 billion, or 14 percent of total ad spend, by the end of the five-year period.

PwC projects double-digit growth in the online/digital and mobile fields in all territories around the world over the next five years to $153 billion, with TV distribution and video games also figuring as key growth engines.

Broadband households will grow by 300 million to 540 million, and wireless subscribers will increase by 1.1 billion to 3.4 billion worldwide, PwC also predicts.

"Content, distribution and technology companies need to aggressively seek out new relationships to accommodate the shift towards convergence," said Jim O'Shaughnessy, global chairman of PwC's entertainment and media practice.

In terms of regions, economic and media/entertainment growth will continue to boost the importance of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), according to PwC.

One particularly eye-catching projection by PwC calls for Asia-Pacific spending on the distribution of TV programming on mobile phones to jump from only $26 million in 2006 to $6.5 billion in 2011.

This 14.7 percent compound annual growth will be nearly three times the projected 5.5 percent increase for the rest of the world.

"Digital download-to-own streaming services will generate incremental revenue in the United States and EMEA," PwC predicts. "Box office will be enhanced by digital cinemas in the United States, Europe/the Middle East/Africa and Asia Pacific and by modern theaters and more screens in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America."

The 6.4 percent global entertainment spending increase projected in PwC's Outlook compares with the compound annual growth rate of 6.6 percent that last year's report predicted for the 2006-10 time frame.