Dire Predictions: Global Ad Spending to Plummet

APRIL 20, 2009

Down, down, down...

Who cares if global ad spending is down?

Almost everyone should, because ad spending is a barometer of economic confidence. And while many political leaders in the US and worldwide point to “signs of recovery,” three major buyers of advertising around the world are giving the situation thumbs down.

Last month, GroupM, a division of WPP, predicted a 4.4% decline in global ad spending for 2009.

That forecast was topped (or bottomed, if you will) by one from Carat Insight, owned by Aegis, which put the worldwide ad spending decline for 2009 at 5.8%.

Now ZenithOptimedia, the media-buying unit of Publicis, the world’s fourth-largest advertising group, has weighed in with the heaviest hit yet.

Last December, ZenithOptimedia had expected merely a 0.2% decline for 2009, but the firm’s revisited figures now predict nearly a 7% decline in worldwide ad spending this year.

In fact, ZenithOptimedia now sees ad spending dropping 11% for magazines, 10% for radio, 5.5% for television, and on and on through the worldwide media spectrum.

“A lot of markets we were expecting to show at least modest growth this year are clearly going to be down substantially,” Jonathan Barnard of ZenithOptimedia told the Financial Times.

Amid the nearly unrelenting gloom, however, one figure shines out.

Internet advertising around the world continues to grow, projected to be up 8.6% this year—to reach 12.1% of overall global ad spending.

At least there is a little light at the end of the tunnel.